The U.S. solar industry is projected to lose up to 55 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity by 2030, according to a recent analysis by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. This represents a 21% decline from previous forecasts, primarily due to policy uncertainties and regulatory challenges introduced by the HR1 legislation.
Policy shifts impacting solar deployment
The HR1 bill, signed into law earlier this year, has introduced several provisions that are affecting the solar industry’s growth trajectory. Notably, the legislation has removed the Residential Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for rooftop solar installations, a move that has significantly impacted the residential solar market. Additionally, the bill has imposed stricter permitting requirements and extended timelines for project approvals, leading to delays and increased costs for solar developers.
Sector-specific impacts
The residential solar sector has been particularly affected, with a noticeable slowdown in installations following the removal of the ITC. In contrast, the utility-scale solar segment has experienced less immediate impact but faces challenges related to permitting and interconnection processes. The commercial and industrial sectors are also experiencing delays, though to a lesser extent, as developers navigate the new regulatory landscape.
Economic and environmental implications
The potential loss of 55 GW of solar capacity could have significant economic and environmental repercussions. Economically, the slowdown in solar deployment may result in job losses within the industry and hinder investment in clean energy infrastructure. Environmentally, the reduced capacity could impede progress toward achieving renewable energy targets and addressing climate change.
Industry response and advocacy
In response to these challenges, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie are advocating for policy reforms to reinstate the ITC and streamline permitting processes. They emphasize the importance of clear and consistent policies to foster growth in the solar sector and ensure the United States remains on track to meet its renewable energy goals.
Looking ahead
While the current outlook presents challenges, industry stakeholders remain hopeful that legislative adjustments and regulatory reforms will mitigate the projected losses. Continued advocacy and collaboration between policymakers and the solar industry will be crucial in shaping a sustainable and prosperous future for solar energy in the United States.
Note: This article is based on information provided by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie and reflects the situation as of September 2025.