A sweeping domestic policy bill passed by House Republicans could spell disaster for the U.S. rooftop solar industry, potentially halving installations next year and triggering widespread bankruptcies, according to industry experts and analysts.
The legislation, which aims to eliminate critical federal tax credits for homeowners and solar leasing companies by the end of 2025, has raised alarms throughout the clean energy sector. According to a report by The New York Times, the bill includes provisions that would immediately terminate investment tax credits for solar leasing firms—a move that experts say could gut one of the most accessible financing options for middle- and low-income households.
“This sets us back,” said Ben Airth, policy director at Freedom Forever, one of the nation’s largest residential solar installers. “I’ve been in this industry 22 years and remember when it was only rich people, doomsday preppers and environmentalists installing solar panels on their roofs.”
Rooftop solar installations have grown steadily over the past two decades, with more than five million American homes now drawing electricity from the sun. That growth has been driven in large part by federal tax incentives, particularly those enhanced under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The law allows homeowners to recover 30% of their solar installation costs and provides investment credits for companies that build and lease systems.
Analysts now warn that without these tax credits, the economics of rooftop solar could collapse. Energy research firm Ohm Analytics estimates that installations could drop by 50% in 2026, while Morgan Stanley projects a more dramatic decline of 85% through the end of the decade.
The proposed bill also prohibits companies from claiming credits if their equipment includes components from China—a dominant player in the global solar supply chain. Industry leaders say the provision is so broad that it could make most systems ineligible for federal support.
The potential fallout is already unfolding. Solar Mosaic, a major loan provider for rooftop systems, declared bankruptcy last week. On Monday, Sunnova Energy, a leading residential solar firm, followed suit. Analysts say these bankruptcies could leave customers without support for maintenance and system servicing, while thousands of solar workers may face layoffs.
“Catastrophic is a fair way to describe the industry impact,” said Gregg Felton, CEO of Altus Power, which specializes in rooftop and parking lot solar projects.
Solar executives are now lobbying Congress to consider a more gradual phase-out of the credits. But opposition among conservative lawmakers remains fierce. “Those God forsaken subsidies are killing our energy, killing our grid,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on the House floor.
The Senate is currently drafting its version of the bill, and the future of rooftop solar could hang in the balance. While some analysts believe the market will eventually stabilize if electricity prices rise, they caution that the coming years could be marked by industry contraction, job losses, and reduced access for everyday Americans.
Source: The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/climate/rooftop-solar-republicans-congress.html